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Se l’America lascia l’Iraq

E’ possibile che un ritiro rapido degli Stati Uniti peggiori in modo drammatico la situazione?
Certamente si, ma è altrettanto possibile che mantenere le truppe sul campo abbia lo stesso effetto.

Lo spettro del terrorismo proveniente dall’esterno è un argomento a cui Bush ricorre spesso.
Gli Stati Uniti stanno facendo poco o niente per mettere un freno alla pulizia etnica a Bagdad e nelle enclave sannite o sciite intorno alla capitale.Al contrario gli Stati Uniti stanno favorendo in parte la guerra civile dato che armano e addestrano l’esercito e la polizia controllati dagli Sciiti nelle città di Samara e nella provincia di Diyaia a nord est di Bagdad.
In queste zone le truppe statunitensi non possono contrastare gli squadroni della morte e i ribelli delle due fazioni.Sarebbe impossibile farlo anche con un numero di soldati superiore a quello promesso dal presidente Bush.
Anche se gli sforzi per creare un nuovo accordo politico tra gli iracheni dopo il ritiro degli americani dovesse fallire l’esito più probbabile sarebbe uno stallo tra sanniti e sciiti con nuove pulizie etniche nelle zone miste.
Ma questa è la strada che l’Iraq ha gia intrapreso, nonostant l’occupazione statunitense.
Dall’inizio dell’invasione statunitense del 2003 la violenza in Iraq non ha fatto che aumentare giorno dopo giorno.
Dal 2003 i curdi conducono una pulizia etnica sistematica riempiendo Kurkuk di curdi cacciando i residenti arabi e inserendo guerriglieri curdi nelle amministrazioni locali.I pericoli di un colpo a Kurkuk sono enormi.
Una mossa del genere rischia di infiammare la popolazione araba in Iraq, schiacciare le altre minoranze e scatenare una recrudescenza nella pulizia etnica della città.
Nel caso di un ritiro dei soldati statunitensi per i curdi sarebbe molto difficile impadronirsi di Kurkuk e dichiarare la seccessione dall’Iraq.Rimandendo in Iraq oppure creando delle basi in Kurdistan Washington ha quindi la possibilità di fomentare la guerra civile curdo-araba nel paese.Oggi la legge è dettata dalla violenza delle bande di estremisti.
Lo stato iracheno non esiste fuori dalla Green zone.L’economia è in ginocchio e la disoccupazione sfiora il 50%.
Secondo molti sondaggi gli iracheni vogliono che le truppe statunitensi si ritirino.
Anche la maggioranza del parlamento iracheno è favorevole al ritiro.
Questo desiderio condiviso potrebbe essere un altro fattore fondamentale per preservare l’unità del paese.

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